The boys in the men who run things.

Boy, don’t I wish I had more than two half days a week to sit down and write! This one has been a veritable cornucopia of commentary-worthy activity in the referendum debate; and not particularly great for Yes as far as I can tell. Firstly, we have the apology from Alex Salmond’s adviser to Claire Lally, a pro-independence campaigner and “ordinary mum” who also happens to be a member of Scottish Labour’s shadow cabinet.  Then we have the conspicuously absent apology from Alastair Daring for his “blood and soil” comments – the intent of which has been made pretty clear in the interview recording that Newsnet Scotland managed to get hold of. (Looks like my assumptions of ignorance & confusion may have been a bit generous last week).

And, of course, we had yesterday’s whopping £1m donation to Better Together, and thoughtful, eloquent (albeit ill-educated, in my opinion) statement on her fears for an Independent Scotland, from author JK Rowling. This sparked disappointment in general through the online Yes community, and outbreaks of deplorable misogynistic fury within the really unpleasant and unhappily vocal Yes minority; which, of course, were pounced on instantly by the pro-Union Twitteratti and paraded through the mainstream media. The same were doubtless thrilled with the opportunity to discredit Yes voters after the (relatively) light-hearted #Legogate and #Inaudiblemumblegate tomfoolery last week.

However, my story this week concerns none of the above. The most important story this week, for me, was a thought-provoking piece from The Guardian on boarding school survivors.

In a nutshell, this article explored the concept of “privileged abandonment”, an experience foisted on the hundreds of young boys who are sent off to elite boarding schools to be moulded into the leaders of tomorrow’s Britain. So compelling did I find the information, and the 1994 documentary on the subject, that I was driven to buy an electronic version of “Wounded Leaders: the Psychohistory of British Elitism and the Entitlement Illusion”, which I started reading last night.

As parent to three small boys, I couldn’t help but feel appalled at the plight of Britain’s young boarders. I’m only a few chapters in to the book, but I have already read about the psychological triggers behind David Cameron’s “calm down, dear” outburst in 2011, directed in a thoroughly patronising manner towards a female MP of the opposition. It would be pointless of me to deny that such flagrantly misogynistic bullying gives all my feminist buttons a thorough pressing, but now I have been given pause for thought, and a possible root cause. A root cause that makes me all the more convinced that Yes is the only positive decision Scotland can make in September.

Wounded Leaders argues that the effective abandonment of privileged young boys to boarding school institutions, causes them to develop, out of self-preservation, a “strategic survival” personality type, over-reliant on rationalism, and with no room for empathy or close relationships. To cope with the sudden loss of their (presumably) loving parents, these poor boys shut themselves off from human affection, become institutionalised, and spend the rest of their lives paying for their fast-track to privileged elite status and political power. Rejection by their mothers results in a disconnection from women, painfully visible in the dearth of females in Westminster.

This sudden reframing of my loathed-for-years white male Conservative establishment, and the identification of the trauma behind what I see as their frank awfulness, breaks my heart. As deplorable as I find their elitism, their disregard for the plight of those damaged by their government of our country; as much as I cringe to hear their out-of-touch, patronising attempts to engage the not-so-elite members of society (Beer & Bingo, anyone?), now I have a heavy feeling in the pit of my stomach that I just can’t shake.

These men were boys of eight or nine years old. Their parents drove them to great, creaking piles of privilege in the guise of schools, and left them there to cry themselves to sleep until they “settled in”. And by “settling in” – according to author Nick Duffell – we mean “shutting down”. Shutting down from love, from empathy and from affection – because if your parents can withdraw these from you, then what possible hope can you have of finding them anywhere else?

But what does this all mean for our #IndyRef debate?

Everything. It means everything.

Look at the physical presence of the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood. Can’t you see the different culture at work, in the very fabric of the building? Our debate chamber is round, neutrally-coloured, light, airy and spacious. The House of Commons, in stark contrast, perpetuates the combative culture of British politics, with unambiguous “us and them” incumbent and opposition benches. The chamber is closed, no natural light enters – the benches are made of dark wood, and almost resemble pews. If I were to go all JK Rowling on you, I’d call it a Chamber of Secrets (sorry). This is a space to facilitate conflict, not cooperation; left unchanged for centuries by the damaged boys it was designed to hold.

Conservatism been linked with lower intelligence levels and prejudice in research that asks:  “Why might less intelligent people be drawn to conservative ideologies? Because such ideologies feature “structure and order” that make it easier to comprehend a complicated world.”

Structure and order sound to me like pretty much what one might expect from a boarding school education; I would argue that any gravitation towards Conservatism in ex-boarders is likely yet another symptom of the “shutdown” coping mechanism described by Mr Duffell. The point of this is probably not anything to do with academic intelligence, but the all-important emotional intelligence that never gets a chance to fully develop.

So how can we walk away from perpetuating the cycle of abandonment – privilege – leadership that seems to define Britain’s politics? Well, voting Yes might not be a bad start (bear with me, please…)

To change reward-based behaviour (I will do such-and-such, to receive such-and-such), remove or change the rewards. Westminster is increasingly filled with private school pupils. Holyrood doesn’t seem to be – or at least I can find very little information on the subject online (compare the two Google searches below, where public school MSPs aren’t even a blip on the radar):

ImageImage

If we vote Yes, we are voting to remove Scotland from the hands of Mr Duffell’s “Wounded Leaders” who have little or no chance of being able to understand the plight of ordinary people under their regime of austerity. Voting Yes will also massively destabilise the remaining establishment in Westminster, removing a huge chunk of the “reward” for the grooming of young children for positions of power, by way of the elite boarding school institutions.

As a British citizen and parent, I find the thought of leaving our country in the hands of “the boys in the men who run things” simultaneously terrifying and heartbreaking.

As a Scottish Yes voter, I see yet another opportunity for the profound betterment of our country and the rest of the UK, in the rejection of an establishment that forms its roots in the cruel abandonment of young children.

Some thoughts for today:

  1. I have a few friends (mostly female) who went through the boarding school system and came out the other side as thoroughly decent human beings. I still believe it was cruel to send them away so young.
  2. Top of my list of priorities as the imaginary First Minister of an Independent Scotland, would be to seek a bill to change all Scottish boarding schools into day schools.
  3. The next time you feel angry with [insert random, objectionable Tory], think of a wee boy, alone and crying for his Mum.
  4. I’ve never felt so much like giving George Osborne a cuddle.

If you don’t have anything nice to say, give us an #inaudiblemumble

I was off to bed last night, before #inaudiblemumblegate broke properly; I had, of course, noted Alistair Darling’s new dictator comparison for Alex Salmond in his New Statesman interview:

dictatorbingotweet

This in itself was no great surprise; I had already written about Mr Salmond’s unfortunate tendency to attract offensive comparisons with oppressors of the people (he really needs to work on that). What was surprising was the chain of events that followed. Having publicly endorsed the article containing said comparison, No Campaign boss Blair Macdougall went into frantic backpedal mode on noting the unfavourable response of us shaky-fisted Cybernats (as well as some of the mainstream media) to a quote from Mr Darling calling Scottish Nationalism a “Blood and Soil” Nationalism – which I understand to be a reference to Nazi Germany (leaps to feet, hollers GODWIN!).

The New Statesman issued a clarification at 22.36, showing that the words “blood and soil” were not directly used by Mr Darling, and transcribing the disputed section of the interview as follows:

NS: But that’s what he says it is. Why do you say it isn’t? What is it? Blood and soil nationalism?

Darling: At heart . . . [inaudible mumble] If you ask any nationalist, ‘Are there any circumstances in which you would not vote to be independent?’ they would say the answer has got to be no. It is about how people define themselves through their national identity.”

So take that as you will. My own guess is that Alistair Darling didn’t fully grasp the reference (I wouldn’t have), and gave his #inaudiblemumble as he silently searched his brain for a view on whether or not to agree. Obviously, the Yes camp has been vociferously pointing out the agreement tacit in not immediately denouncing the comparison as offensive.

An apology for having appeared to endorse such a comparison, even via ignorance, would probably go a long way to repairing the damage, but in a somewhat Orwellian manner, the No camp have instead chosen to insist that Mr Darling said or inferred nothing of the sort, and have blamed Alex Salmond instead, for not having the decency to “call off his [own] dogs” therefore making retaliation of this sort inevitable. How constructive.

In the stushie over whose supporters can be said to be the more unpleasant, Yes predictably come off the worst in the mainstream media. But are we really such a dreadful bunch? I decided to conduct a vastly simplistic, unscientific and subjective piece of quick research on Twitter (just pre-acknowledging my lack of credibility, lest anyone should set their own dogs on me…)

I analysed 109 (it was meant to be 100, but I got my Excel sum mixed up and looked at more by accident)  tweets from the #IndyRef timeline, and categorised them according to the following criteria:

  • Positive for Yes
  • Positive for No
  • Neutral
  • Negative about Yes
  • Negative about No
  • Threatening / abusive towards Yes
  • Threatening / abusive towards No
  • Spam

I tried to err on the side of strictness for Yes tweets, so where Tweeters were encouraging a Yes vote for positive reasons that included a direct (and unfavourable) comparison with Westminster, I allocated half a point each to Positive for Yes and Negative for No.

I split the Tweeters into three groups, depending on what I could tell about them from their profiles (Twibbons, headlines etc):

  • Supportive of Yes
  • Supportive of No
  • Unclear

The exercise was an eye-opener to say the least! Here are the results:

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The first obviously noticeable thing, is that whether positive or negative, Yes supporters seemed to have an awful lot to say about the referendum this morning. This was pretty evenly split between positive for Yes and negative for No, with the positivity a whisker ahead – and given the context (morning after #inaudiblemumblegate) I think that’s pretty good going, considering the easy fodder we had been handed for our vitriol. There were even a couple of Yes Tweeters being supportive of Alistair Darling’s predicament in being misquoted in such spectacular fashion, which show up above as a friendly blob of blue in the +ve for No column.

I noted only 1.5 points of threatening or abusive behaviour, both of which came from Yes supporters. The half point came from the tweet below, which I counted as half positive for Yes, and half abusive towards No (See? Strict strict strict!) on the basis that “evil” is a pretty strong descriptor for Westminster:

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And a full point for this, which was just downright unpleasant:

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Naughty Cybernats! Naughty naughty, given that the virtuous No supporters scored a squeaky-clean zero in the threats/abuse column.

But that isn’t the end of the story.

Supporters of No, if they said anything at all, were two and a half times more likely to say something negative about Yes, than positive about No. Then there was the following gem, which for the sake of rigour I decided to include in the “Negative about No” column, given that the Tweeter was being critical of a No supporter’s spelling:

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And this – again rigorously recorded in “Negative about No” for referring to Unionists as “snidey”:

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So, I think it’s fair to say that there are nasty bastards on either side of the debate, which – at least for an hour between 0830 and 0930 this morning, was thoroughly dominated by Yes, with 83.5% of tweets coming from Yes supporters. With Twitterverse volumes like that, I think it’s only surprising that more really unpleasant Yessers didn’t crawl out of the woodwork! And yes, I absolutely promise that I wasn’t selective about which tweets to analyse – I simply started at the top and worked my way down 109 entries.

It will be interesting to repeat this exercise some other time, when the balance of idiocy rests with the Yes campaign rather than Better Together; something tells me that we might not get off so lightly. Although, having said that I would encourage you to have a look at the #inaudiblemumble timeline, which contains some pure comedy genius.

Say what you like about us Cybernats, but we certainly know how to have a giggle.

No. I don’t like that Salmond.

Let’s just for a minute assume that the vote for an Independent Scotland is a vote for Alex Salmond.

This shouldn’t be too much of a stretch for the imagination, given that the mainstream media remind us frequently that this debate about Scotland’s future is nothing more than a personal crusade by our Mugabe-esque, Hiltler-esque [insert random tyrant]-esque First Minister.

And why not? I suppose he is kind of dictatorial, you know if dictators were democratically elected in landslide elections, and tended to donate salaries they didn’t need to charity.

So notwithstanding the indisputable mandate the SNP were handed by the Scottish people in May 2011 to hold an independence referendum, let’s pretend that it is indeed all about Mr S.

That would mean once we became independent, we’d be stuck with the SNP whether we liked it or not. Yes yes, I know – I can hear you all screeching in horror and throwing your hands up in dismay at the sheer, outrageous, undemocratic awfulness of that scenario!

Just as well we can trust in the democratic process of the UK then, where Scotland represents 8.5% of the population, and has changed the outcome of UK general elections exactly 3 times in 67 years.

That’s going to be a hoot, given the new and exciting wave of far-right politics that we saw in last week’s European elections. A right-wing wave, by the way, that Scotland rejected; please look at the percentage results if you visit that link, by the way – unsurprisingly the site defaults to seat breakdown (NEWSFLASH – ONE OF THEM IS UKIP!) rather than showing actual big boy numbers.

Therefore, having decided that this is all about Alex Salmond, we now have the happy choice between being stuck with the SNP for evermore, or having a 95.52% chance of being stuck with whoever the voting population in England decide should be in charge. *COUGHS* Tory/UKIP Coalition..? *COUGHS*

Or we could get a grip.

A Yes vote means 100% control over who governs us, be that Labour, LibDem, Green, Tory (gasp), UKIP (double gasp) or even our lovable Tartan Mugabe himself.

End of.

 

Today’s burning questions:

>> Do you know anybody that’s planning on voting for or against AS in the referendum?

>> Would you consider throwing a handful of wet socks, or some decomposing marshmallows at their head in protest?

>> What’s with AS’s eyebrows, anyway?

5 Reasons Why Scottish Independence Would Be an Economic Disaster

Except it wouldn’t…

I knew before I read David Nicholson’s ubiquitous Forbes article that I probably wasn’t going to like it much. As a passionate Yes voter and general optimist, I inevitably graduate towards the more positive side of the IndyRef debate; however my inner research junkie dies hard these days, and I am more than usually reluctant to simply accept mainstream opinions and adopt them without some serious looking-into. So I found myself clicking with trepidation on the article link, prepared for some tough reading, which is – of course – exactly what I got.

But, what good would an inner research junkie be to a good ol’ IndyRef ding-dong, if it didn’t drive you to uncover hidden truths and dispel rampant misinformation? No good at all, I hear you cry – so let’s get straight down to business, shall we?

Firstly, a quick bit of context that should inform your ready acceptance of Mr Nicholson’s 5 points.

Number one, he holds a degree from Trinity College Cambridge in English Literature Ref – in case you were wondering, that’s the kind of English Lit degree that isn’t an Economics degree. Of course, that’s not to say that via years of research and freelance writing, he hasn’t formed a decent understanding of economics – I would imagine he has – but just bear in mind that we’re dealing with an “economic commentator” here, not an economist.

Number two and perhaps more pertinent to this article in particular, is the nature of Mr Nicholson’s agreement with Forbes online magazine where the article was published; he describes it as follows:

“ This is a new business model for me – I know other publications such as the Huffington Post do something similar, but with Forbes, they’re paying me per view (on top of a modest monthly retainer), which is a big difference. “ Ref

So the more hits on the article, the more cash for Mr Nicholson; making it very much in his interest to write something controversial and hard-hitting that pushes buttons galore on either side of the Yes/No fence, thereby increasing its likelihood of going viral.

How about well-researched? Well, that one’s not quite so critical, in fact the more questionable factoids included in an article like this, the better – that way not only can pro-Union readers share it to spread the word of inevitable economic collapse following a Yes vote, but shaky-fisted crazy Cybernats (yes, like me) can share the heck out of it too, by way of explaining how much utter gubbins it talks.

Let’s all take a quick pause, and listen to the sweet sound of pound coins clinking happily into Forbes account Nicholson, D.

Which leads us neatly on to point number 1…

1. Currency Confusion

There’s really not all that much to be confused about. Despite “exposed and blustering” Alex Salmond being denounced as a “man without a plan” by Better Together and the mainstream media, in fact there is a wealth of evidence available to support the all-party Yes Campaign’s position on currency.

Firstly, based on advice and recommendations from the Fiscal Commission Working Group (FCWG), we see the analysis of four currency options available to an Independent Scotland. Yes, that’s four options – so Plans A, B, C and D covered. Plan A (the Currency Union) was recommended by those eminent professors making up the group, who are:

Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett – Professor of Economics and Public Policy at George Mason University in the US, visiting Professor at Harvard University and Professor of Economics at the University of St Andrews.

Professor Sir James Mirrlees – Professor Emeritus at Cambridge University and distinguished professor-at-large at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. In 1996 Sir James was awarded the Nobel Prize for his work on economic models and equations about situations where information is asymmetrical or incomplete.

Professor Frances Ruane – Director of Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute previously an Associate Professor of Economics at Trinity College, Dublin.

Professor Joseph Stiglitz – Professor of Economics at Columbia University. He won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001 and was a member of the US Council of Economic Advisers from 1993-95, serving as CEA Chair from 1995-97.

Crawford Beveridge (Chair) – Crawford Beveridge is a technology industry veteran with more than 35 years of experience. 

So that’s one experienced businessman, and four pretty heavyweight experts, with various professorships and two Nobel prizes in economics between them – you know, just like all the professorships and Nobel prizes in economics that David Nicholson hasn’t got. All of them recommend a currency union with the rest of the UK.

One of the most interesting statements from the work of the FCWG reads as follows:

the timing of the constitutional debate, and the nature of relationships and partnerships in the modern global economy, mean that much of the detail of any framework will be subject to negotiation with these partners post the referendum.

In that respect, it is important to acknowledge that political considerations will play a role and may cloud pre-referendum comments and policy statements. However, these are likely to differ from the actual decisions taken post-referendum when agreement is likely to take place where there are common interests.”

Hence the Yes Campaign’s stated opinion that Mr Osborne is spouting rubbish, aiming to scare Scots into a No vote. This position was substantiated further, when an anonymous Government Minister popped in to The Guardian and said “Of course there would be a currency union.”

If you’re interested, you can see the reports issued by the FCWG here, on the Scottish Government’s website.

You may also be interested to compare the evidence provided by the FCWG, with the presumably compelling evidence considered by UK Treasury in coming to the decision to recommend that Chancellor George Osborne refuse a currency union.

Except you can’t, because it doesn’t seem to exist.

2. Delusions of Oil Grandeur

Here, we go into the apparently uncertain fortunes of Scotland’s oil industry, with Mr Nicholson citing the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) as his source for asserting that North Sea oil rigs are at the end of their life. Checking his sources seems to back up this position; to quote the IFS:

For the UK as a whole, the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility], in its latest fiscal sustainability report, expects revenues from oil and gas production to fall by over 80% between 2011–12 and 2022–23” REF

So far, so credible. However, an interesting note turns up in the fiscal sustainability report cited:

Total UK oil and gas production has fallen every year since 1999, with particularly steep falls of 19 per cent and 14 per cent in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Our medium-term forecast out to 2017-18 assumes that this decline will pause over the next five years, reflecting the pay-off from recent high levels of investment.”

This, of course, sent me trotting off to find out why investment would be so high in a dwindling resource. Enter Oil & Gas UK, “The Voice of the Offshore Industry” who in a press release of October 2013 shared that Government “sharpening of focus” on the oil industry “has given investors the confidence to develop new fields and redevelop older fields, so we are now seeing the highest-ever investment.”

Turn to Oil & Gas UK’s latest Economic Report and we can see why such confidence in the industry:

Considering the full range of opportunities available, current investment plans have the potential to deliver 11.4 billion boe [barrel of oil equivalent] in total, as follows:

  • 7.4 billion boe from existing fields or those currently under development
  • Four billion boe from incremental and new field developments (not yet approved)”

So that’s a possible 11.4 billion barrels of oil estimated out there. Using the average 2012 price of $112 per barrel, from the report, we arrive at a current value of $1276bn (I’ll admit to illiteracy with really large numbers – is that $1.276 trillion?) – and that’s before taking into account any price increases that may come with the UK Government’s predicted 28% increase in demand by 2035.”REF

In fact from the same UK Government source document as the quote above, we learn that “According to Oil & Gas UK’s Activity Survey, the reality is that the UK will continue to supply oil and gas well beyond 2055.”

Well that’s pretty good news, isn’t it?

3. Financial Mismanagement

This point is based on the “evident nonsense” of the concept of Bank of England being the lender of last resort for Scottish banks, should they get themselves into another big fat pickle such as the banking crises of the mid-2000s: “Taxpayers in the rest of the UK bailing out Scottish banks, despite them being in an ‘independent’ country”?

The very thought!

Except that from December 2007, Barclays benefitted from a gigantic $863bn from the Federal Reserve when they looked like they were about to start pushing up the daisies. And didn’t the UK Government bail out Irish banks to the tune of £7bn in 2008-2009? What about Greece? In 2011, the International Monetary Fund contributed £30bn to manage the debt crisis there – the UK’s 4.5% share of which cost the taxpayer slightly more than £1bn.

I’m not saying that a cross-border banking bail-out is something an Independent Scotland should or would aspire to, however it’s clear that the concept isn’t entirely unprecedented. But perhaps Mr Nicholson was washing his hair that day.

 

4. Loss of Credibility

This section is a real hoot! We start with the writer’s low opinion of Scotland’s position in Europe and the rest of the world, before arriving inevitably at the uncertainty of an Independent Scotland’s EU membership – ah, that old chestnut.

In all fairness to Mr Nicholson, this article was written well before UKIP won the European Elections in England, so that extra layer of hilarious was originally missing. However , let’s consider the evidence submitted to the UK and Scottish Governments by Graham Avery (Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre, Brussels, and Honorary Director-General of the European Commission), which you can find here, specifically point 2:

“In the debate on Scottish independence it is natural that opponents tend to exaggerate the difficulties of EU membership, while proponents tend to minimise them. This note tries to address the subject as objectively as possible. In summary it argues that:

· Arrangements for Scotland’s EU membership would need to be in place simultaneously with independence

· Scotland’s 5 million people, having been members of the EU for 40 years; have acquired rights as European citizens

· For practical and political reasons they could not be asked to leave the EU and apply for readmission

· Negotiations on the terms of membership would take place in the period between the referendum and the planned date of independence

· The EU would adopt a simplified procedure for the negotiations, not the traditional procedure followed for the accession of non-member countries”

Of course, any committed Googler can easily turn up sources stating the opposite; that Scotland will be flung from the EU on Independence Day +1, and will have to wait in line to return with everybody else. At the end of the day, it’s up to individual voters to do their own reading and choose who to believe.

It might be worth bearing in mind though, who just won the UK European Election, have a read of their manifesto on the EU, and think a bit about how long Scotland’s membership is likely to survive after a No vote.

5. Lack of Natural Resources

Finally, we arrive at Scotland’s lack of anything remotely useful beyond the oil, which as we have already established should continue to be supplied well beyond 2055, and is likely to be worth well over $1 trillion. Oh no.

We launch into a conspicuously absent discussion of how Scotland’s renewable energy potential includes (according to Oxford University) one of the best sites in the world for tidal energy. Also missing, is the fact that “There are estimated to be enough offshore wind projects in planning to deliver up to 10GW of renewable energy by 2020, enough to reach the target of 100% of [Scotland’s] electricity demand from renewables.Ref

We end with a quick nod to Scotland’s (specifically the Western Isles) position as subsidy junkies to the rest of the UK, which of course is more nonsense given that per capita Scotland contributes more tax revenue than the UK as a whole. Then lastly an assumption of mass exodus from the wasteland of natural resources that would be an Independent Scotland.

So there we have it. 5 reasons why an Independent Scotland would be an economic disaster.

Except it wouldn’t.

And Mr Nicholson, I’ve linked to your pay-per-click article twice on here – you’re very welcome, and make sure you don’t spend it all at once. 🙂